The switch of Senator Jim Jeffords from the Republican Party to Independent status is a case in point; a case helpful to those sociologists who would apply chaos theory to political sociology. I will lay out the basics of this great transformation for those of my colleagues interested in non-linear social dynamics in general and in political sociology more particularly.

First, there are several caveats to remember as one explores non-linear social dynamics

A. While small changes can produce qualitatively different behavior from a dynamical system, the larger point to remember is that, most of the time, small and large changes are absorbed by social systems.

B. In biological, physical, physiological and psychological dynamics, there are specific change points, called Feigenbaum points, at which such transitions can be expected. That may well NOT be the case with complex social systems...the basic research has not been done; the basic research tools are not in place; the basic research design has not be developed. So one must be very careful when applying chaos/complexity theory to social behaviors.

C. Still--there is a lot of support for the application of chaos/complexity assumptions to social behavior. Some of these can be seen at

http//www.tryoung.com/chaos/chaosindex.html

and at http//www.tryoung.com/chaos-crm/000contents.html

D. Now, let's take a look at the monumental transformations possible by the simple act of one person strategically located in time and place to trigger great changes.

1. The Judiciary Committee. The Committee Chair changes from Orrin Hatch, Ut., conservative Republican, to Pat Leahy, Vt., liberal Democrat. The social consequences of this change are profound indeed since this Committee has purview over

The most pressing concern to conservative Republicans is appointment of culturally correct and economically conservative Federal Judges to several hundred unfilled Courts around the country. Mr. Bush has set up the basic process by which to affect Federal Court Rulings for the next twenty or thirty years...Mr. Jeffords' switch severely restricts the effort to appoint Judges who will rule on everything from human sexuality to religion to gun control...all center to the cultural capital of conservative Republicans and their social base. A social base oriented to both patriarchy and to fundamentalist religious practices.

2. The Appropriations Committee Committee Chair switches from Ted Stevens, Ak., to Robert Byrd, WV.

A great deal is at stake in this small change. All federal budgets come under its purview. Efforts of Democrats to fund programs of social justice; to reduce class inequality are much more feasible than when Republicans had control of the agenda. Efforts of Republicans to insulate the wealthy from bigger budgets and higher taxes are hampered.

Among the concerns of the Committee on Appropriations are:

3. Crucial to a payoff of campaign debts and the ability to get contributions in the future is work of the Finance Committee. It was Chaired by Chuck Grassley, Ia., It will be Chaired by Max Baucus, Mt. It has purview over

And Finally, 4. John Warner, Va., is Chair of the Armed Forces Committee. He will be replaced by Carl Levine, Mi. This Committee has oversight of

Several key Republican hopes centered around the ability of Mr. Warner to control the agenda of the Committee. Building a missile defense system to protect the USA against North Korea, Iran and other super-powers is much less likely to be discussed and thus, funded. Defense industries, large contributors to Republican coffers, depend upon the mega-billion budget that would have been required to fund research, development and deployment of the 'defense' system. And...protection of some 3000 transnational corporations taking profits, depleting resources, exploiting labor and despoiling the environment in some 130 poor countries around the world...this free service of the US Military is placed in jeopardy as well.

In most other concerns, switching Chairs matters little...especially in concern for the health and welfare of the Armed Forces and concern for military readiness.

CONCLUSION There will be small changes in other Committees of the US Senate which will, in turn, trigger large changes in social dynamics. It is impossible, in chaos theory, to predict where and what these changes will be but changes there will be. The decision of Jim Jeffords to leave the Republican party has already triggered changes which will cascade through time and place to ever-more changes of a sort impossible to gauge, to track, to predict or to obstruct. This is the sort of non-linear dynamics to which sociology and all social science must retool in order to continue to provide useful knowledge in timely fashion to the world. In brief, the method of successive approximations to unchanging truth and absolute certainty is lost. Thus the hope for a general theory; for improving prediction; for positive knowledge similar to that of simple dynamic systems in physics and chemistry; that hope is lost to the new sciences of chaos and complexity. But there remains room for a knowledge process helpful to human agency...that topic is treated at:

http//www.tryoung.com/chaos/007humanagency.html

Finally...while this event, the Jeffords Event, will cascade throughout political, economic and social life around the world in ways unknowable, still that cascade will be bounded by a transcending human wisdom which values social justice, enveloping democracy and human dignity along with growing respect for the environment of the world upon which all human life depends. The knowledge process itself will continue to expand and to improve...it just will not be the perfect instrument expected by modernist science with which to obtain truth and foreknowledge about all things large and small. In future, all truth statements will be provisional and fractal...that is the larger lesson we can learn from explications and applications of Chaos theory to social behavior.

TR Young, Director, The Red Feather
Institute for Advanced Studies in Sociology.