Gulf War

Causes

Coalition: how were countries like Egypt persuaded to join?

Saddam Hussein's efforts to divide the coalition using Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Swift victory and its problems.

Shia uprising, Kurdish refugee problem, no-fly zones

1991-2003 conditions

no-fly zones

disarmament, destruction of chemical and biological weapons, inspectors

embargo

oil for food program

"Peace Process" 1991-present

1991-1993 "Madrid Round".  Comprehensive.  Israel conducted negotiations with Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestinians.  Palestinians were "non-PLO," and also not from Hamas or Islamic Jihad,  from West Bank and Gaza.

Driving forces: US statements during Gulf War about seeking resolution; Israeli concern with disengaging and concentrating on integrating flood of immigrants from USSR; Palestinian financial problems and divisions

1993 Oslo Accord.  Bi-lateral and secret, between Israel, headed by Rabin, and Arafat

Established framework.  Five year process, beginning with autonomy or self-rule for Palestinians in territories

1994 Arafat returned to West Bank as President of "Palestinian Authority". (Corruption, political dominance)

Issues:

1. Split opinions: Israel, land for peace group versus revisionists/Greater Zionists

    Palestinians: PLO two-state position versus Hamas and Jihad rejectionism

2. Vision of compromise.  Israel--compromise would mean that Palestinians get some sort of state in part of West Bank and Gaza, with Israel withdrawing from some settlements.  Palestinians--compromise would mean that Palestinians settle for only 22 percent of Palestine--the whole of West Bank and Gaza, and Israelis fully withdraw.

3.  Major Israeli concern: security.  Major Palestinian concern: control of land.

4.  Broken promises:  Palestinians do not stop terrorism; it increases. Suicide bombers start attacks within Israel's borders in 1995.  Israelis do not withdraw; they stall, expand network of limited access highways, continue land expropriations and building settlements, etc.

5.  Issues for negotiation:

How much land do Palestinians actually get?

How will Palestinians guarantee Israeli security?

What happens to Jerusalem?  (Palestinian claims on East Jerusalem as capital; interference by US Israel supporters calling for recognition of Jerusalem as Israeli capital)

Return of refugees--to West Band and Gaza only, or to old homes in Israel?

Water.

Extent of Palestinian control or sovereignty, and of Palestinian military forces.

What about settlements?

Major incidents: 1995, an Israeli Jew assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. 

1996 Netanyahu, backed by Likud, became Prime Minister.  Stalling. Increased Palestinian violence

1998 - 2000 Wye River negotiations, led by Clinton.  Barak and Arafat 

1998-2000 Labor, Barak became Prime Minister.

1999 Barak withdrew Israeli troops from southern Lebanon.  Hezbollah claimed victory.

Summer of 2000, Arafat rejected Wye River settlement. 

September 2000, Sharon led group to al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, sparked "al-Aqsa intifada".  Brought down Barak's government; Sharon became PM.

2001 to November 2004, stalemate.  Violence.  No serious negotiations.  November 2004, Arafat died.  New chance for negotiations.  Meanwhile:

2001 the Wall is started.  Settlements expand.  Land expropriation continues.